Management of saltwater intrusion using 3D numerical modelling: a first for Pacific Island country of Vanuatu.

Small island countries like Vanuatu are facing the brunt of climate change, sea level rise (SLR), tropical cyclones, and limited or declining access to freshwater. The Tagabe coastal aquifer in Port Vila (the capital of Vanuatu) shows the presence of salinity, indicating saltwater intrusion (SWI). This study aims to develop and evaluate effective SWI management strategies for Tagabe coastal aquifer. To manage SWI, the numerical simulation model for the study area was developed using the SEAWAT code. The flow model was developed using MODFLOW and the transport model was developed using MT3DMS. Whereby SEAWAT solved flow and transport equations simultaneously. The model was calibrated, and different scenarios were evaluated for the management of SWI. The SLR was also considered in the model simulations. The results indicated that increased population, pumping rates, and SLR affect the SWI rates. To manage the SWI, we introduced hydraulic barriers like barrier wells and injection wells which effectively managed SWI in Tagabe coastal aquifer. The results from this study are significantly important whereby, the water managers, site owners, and governing bodies can use the management strategies presented in this study to create policies and regulations for managing SWI rates in Port Vila. Additionally, the water industry, private businesses, and investors who wish to extract groundwater from the Tagabe can use this study as a reference for daily or yearly freshwater production rates without the risk of SWI.

Integrating numerical modelling and scenario-based sensitivity analysis for saltwater intrusion management: case study of a complex heterogeneous island aquifer system.

Population growth, industrialisation and increasing agricultural demands have significantly stressed groundwater resources in Pacific Island countries (PICs). Climate change and sea-level rise also affect the groundwater resources in PICs. These anthropogenic and natural factors give rise to saltwater intrusion (SWI), a major growing environmental problem in the PICs. SWI is a highly non-linear process which makes it more complex to manage. However, with the help of numerical modelling, SWI can be monitored, managed and controlled. In the present study, we used an illustrative study area where the hydrogeological parameters and other boundary conditions used are similar to the PICs aquifer systems in Vanuatu. The scenarios include changing the barrier wells, injection wells, recharge, hydraulic head, hydraulic conductivity and grid size. The numerical simulation model of the study area was developed, and different scenarios were tested using SEAWAT modules. Apart from salt, we also modelled leachate and engine oil present in the investigated study area to see how it affects the freshwater wells over time. The scenario-based sensitivity analysis tests indicate that injection wells, recharge and hydraulic conductivities are highly sensitive, and with the proper modification, SWI can be managed or regulated. The sensitivity of grid size showed that the simulated results varied within the 10% range of different gird sizes. Moreover, it was also found that the rise in sea level or coastal heads by 0.3-1 m does not significantly cause further SWI encroachment in aquifers. The results from this study are very crucial in this modern era when freshwater needs in coastal areas, especially PICs, are rapidly increasing, and fresh groundwater resources are declining. The novel outcome presented in this study opens pathways for further detailed modelling and numerical studies in the field of SWI management strategy development and is, therefore, beneficial for policymakers, groundwater modellers and general scientific communities.

Application of Monitoring Network Design and Feedback Information for Adaptive Management of Coastal Groundwater Resources.

Optimal strategies for the management of coastal groundwater resources can be derived using coupled simulation-optimization based management models. However, the management strategy actually implemented on the field sometimes deviates from the recommended optimal strategy, resulting in field-level deviations. Monitoring these field-level deviations during actual implementation of the recommended optimal management strategy and sequentially updating the management model using the feedback information is an important step towards efficient adaptive management of coastal groundwater resources. In this study, a three-phase adaptive management framework for a coastal aquifer subjected to saltwater intrusion is applied and evaluated for a regional-scale coastal aquifer study area. The methodology adopted includes three sequential components. First, an optimal management strategy (consisting of groundwater extraction from production and barrier wells) is derived and implemented for optimal management of the aquifer. The implemented management strategy is obtained by solving a homogenous ensemble-based coupled simulation-optimization model. Second, a regional-scale optimal monitoring network is designed for the aquifer system considering possible user noncompliance of a recommended management strategy, and uncertainties in estimating aquifer parameters. A new monitoring network design objective function is formulated to ensure that candidate monitoring wells are placed in high risk (highly contaminated) locations. In addition, a new methodology is utilized to select candidate monitoring wells in areas representative of the entire model domain. Finally, feedback information in the form of measured concentrations obtained from the designed optimal monitoring wells is used to sequentially modify pumping strategies for future time periods in the management horizon. The developed adaptive management framework is evaluated by applying it to the Bonriki aquifer system located in Kiribati, which is a small developing island country in the South Pacific region. Overall, the results from this study suggest that the implemented adaptive management strategy has the potential to address important practical implementation issues arising due to noncompliance of an optimal management strategy and uncertain aquifer parameters.

Multi-objective groundwater management strategy under uncertainties for sustainable control of saltwater intrusion: Solution for an island country in the South Pacific.

To date, simulation-optimization (S/O) based groundwater management models have delivered optimal saltwater intrusion management strategies for coastal aquifer systems. At times, however, uncertainties in the numerical simulation model due to uncertain aquifer parameters are not incorporated into the management model. The present study explicitly incorporated aquifer parameter uncertainty into a multi-objective management model for the optimal design of groundwater pumping strategies from the unconfined Bonriki aquifer situated in a small Pacific island country. The objective of the multi-objective management model was to maximise pumping from production wells and minimize pumping from the barrier wells (hydraulic barriers) to ensure that the water quality at different monitoring locations (MLs) were within pre-specified sustainable limits. To achieve the targeted management goal, a coupled flow and transport numerical simulation model of the Bonriki aquifer was developed using the FEMWATER numerical code. The developed three-dimensional numerical model was calibrated and validated using limited available hydrological data. To achieve computational efficiency and feasibility of the management model, the numerical simulation model in the S/O model was replaced with ensembles of Support Vector Machine Regression (SVMR) surrogate models. Each SVMR standalone surrogate model in the ensemble was constructed using datasets from different numerical simulation models with different hydraulic conductivity and porosity values. These ensemble SVMR models were coupled to the multi-objective genetic algorithm optimization model to solve the Bonriki aquifer management problem. The executed optimization model presented a Pareto-front with 600 non-dominated optimal trade-off pumping solutions. The reliability of the management model established after validation of the optimal solution results suggests that the implemented constraints of the optimization problem were satisfied, i.e., the salinity concentrations at respective MLs were within the pre-specified limits. Overall, the results from this study indicated that the developed management model has the potential to address groundwater salinity problems in small island countries.